When Sudden, Dramatic Change Is Imminent, What Are the Warning Signs?

largemouth bass, ecosystem, Peter LakePredictions of tipping points in ecology, climate change, medical outcomes and other complex systems are a primary goal for many researchers. The pursuit of insights into the timing of critical transitions is no easy way to make a living, particularly because random events can trigger such changes and warning signs are easily missed or misinterpreted.

Perhaps the best approach to studying tipping points is to combine two different approaches?one that explores the architecture of systems that change drastically and another that homes in on telltale signs that a system is on the brink. A team of environmental scientists, ecologists and economists led by Marten Scheffer, an ecologist at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, posit such a two-pronged analysis in the October 19 issue of Science.

In terms of architecture, some systems?be they populations, ecosystems or economies?are made up of parts that are diverse and only marginally connected, which means change tends to occur gradually. Other systems, however, comprised of similar, highly interconnected components may resist change at first and then flip rapidly when pushed to a certain threshold.

Scheffer and his colleagues use coral reefs to illustrate their point about system architecture. Coral reefs are highly connected systems?organisms from one reef are known to repair damage to nearby reefs. If organisms from one reef are constantly saving another reef from destruction over time, it might leave the impression that the damaged reef is highly resilient. However, when many reefs are stricken by, say, a sea urchin disease outbreak such as the one that occurred in the Caribbean in the 1980s, this can leave the entire reef system vulnerable to tropical storm damage and a large-scale, yet unforeseen, ecosystem collapse.

Studying the impact of structure on a complex system?s strength or fragility is only half the battle. The researchers argue that so far there are no ways to use architecture alone to measure how close any particular system is to a critical transition. For this, it?s helpful to also analyze a system?s timeline for clues. Scheffer and his colleagues note that some changes are preceded by a slowdown in activity while others are presaged by an uptick in disorder.

In addition to their own research, Scheffer and his colleagues are contributing to the study of critical transitions in other ways. They are behind the July launch of the Early Warning Signals Toolbox Web site, a clearinghouse for research, case studies and free computer programs dedicated to the early recognition of such tipping points.

The results of critical transitions aren?t always bad?i.e. the destruction of a coral reef network or the crashing of financial markets. University of Wisconsin?Madison ecologist Stephen Carpenter has for years studied how critical transitions can be used to keep invasive species from overtaking healthy habitats. Using the food chain at Peter Lake on the Wisconsin?Michigan border as a test bed, Carpenter and his colleagues over several years introduced dozens of largemouth bass into the algae-infested water. In time, the bass ate the once-dominant fathead minnows, pumpkinseeds and other fish that preyed on the lake?s populations of water fleas and other tiny, algae-eating animals. With these algae-eaters back in business, the lake water cleared and has remained that way, Carl Zimmer describes in the November 2012 Scientific American article ?Ecosystems on the Brink.?

Carpenter and his team developed mathematical models of the region?s ecological networks using variables including the reproduction rate of individual species and the rate at which they ate one another. The researchers tracked the transition and were able to identify tipping points?15 months ahead of Peter Lake?s dramatic transformation.

Image courtesy of James Allred, via iStockphoto.com

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=98d021c63a53ab2ebcfab4564d767f95

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Earth-sized planet found just outside solar system

This artist?s impression made available by the European Southern Observatory on Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012 shows a planet, right, orbiting the star Alpha Centauri B, center, a member of the triple star system that is the closest to Earth. Alpha Centauri A is at left. The Earth's Sun is visible at upper right. Searching across the galaxy for interesting alien worlds, scientists made a surprising discovery: a planet remarkably similar to Earth in a solar system right next door. Other Earth-like planets have been found before, but this one is far closer than previous discoveries. Unfortunately, the planet is way too hot for life, and it?s still 25 trillion miles away. (AP Photo/ESO, L. Calcada)

This artist?s impression made available by the European Southern Observatory on Tuesday, Oct. 16, 2012 shows a planet, right, orbiting the star Alpha Centauri B, center, a member of the triple star system that is the closest to Earth. Alpha Centauri A is at left. The Earth's Sun is visible at upper right. Searching across the galaxy for interesting alien worlds, scientists made a surprising discovery: a planet remarkably similar to Earth in a solar system right next door. Other Earth-like planets have been found before, but this one is far closer than previous discoveries. Unfortunately, the planet is way too hot for life, and it?s still 25 trillion miles away. (AP Photo/ESO, L. Calcada)

(AP) ? European astronomers say that just outside our solar system they've found a planet that's the closest you can get to Earth in location and size.

It is the type of planet they've been searching for across the Milky Way galaxy and they found it circling a star right next door ? 25 trillion miles away. But the Earth-like planet is so hot its surface may be like molten lava. Life cannot survive the 2,200 degree heat of the planet, so close to its star that it circles it every few days.

The astronomers who found it say it's likely there are other planets circling the same star, a little farther away where it may be cool enough for water and life. And those planets might fit the not-too-hot, not-too-cold description sometimes call the Goldilocks Zone.

That means that in the star system Alpha Centauri B, a just-right planet could be closer than astronomers had once imagined.

It's so close that from some southern places on Earth, you can see Alpha Centauri B in the night sky without a telescope. But it's still so far that a trip there using current technology would take tens of thousands of years.

But the wow factor of finding such a planet so close has some astronomers already talking about how to speed up a 25 trillion-mile rocket trip there. Scientists have already started pressuring NASA and the European Space Agency to come up with missions to send something out that way to get a look at least.

The research was released online Tuesday in the journal Nature. There has been a European-U.S. competition to find the nearest and most Earthlike exoplanets ? planets outside our solar system. So far scientists have found 842 of them, but think they number in the billions.

While the newly discovered planet circles Alpha Centauri B, it's part of a system of three stars: Alpha Centauri A, B and the slightly more distant Proxima Centauri. Systems with two or more stars are more common than single stars like our sun, astronomers say.

This planet has the smallest mass ? a measurement of weight that doesn't include gravity ? that has been found outside our solar system so far. With a mass of about 1.1 times the size of Earth, it is strikingly similar in size.

Stephane Udry of the Geneva Observatory, who heads the European planet-hunting team, said this means "there's a very good prospect of detecting a planet in the habitable zone that is very close to us."

And one of the European team's main competitors, Geoff Marcy of the University of California Berkeley, gushed even more about the scientific significance.

"This is an historic discovery," he wrote in an email. "There could well be an Earth-size planet in that Goldilocks sweet spot, not too cold and not too hot, making Alpha Centauri a compelling target to search for intelligent life."

Harvard planet-hunter David Charbonneau and others used the same word to describe the discovery: "Wow."

Charbonneau said when it comes to looking for interesting exoplanets "the single most important consideration is the distance from us to the star" and this one is as close as you can get. He said astronomers usually impress the public by talking about how far away things are, but this is not, at least in cosmic terms.

Alpha Centauri was the first place the private Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence program looked in its decade-long hunt for radio signals that signify alien intelligent life. Nothing was found, but that doesn't mean nothing is there, said SETI Institute astronomer Seth Shostak.

The European team spent four years using the European Southern Observatory in Chile to look for planets at Alpha Centauri B and its sister stars Alpha Centauri A and Proxima Centauri. They used a technique that finds other worlds by looking for subtle changes in a star's speed as it races through the galaxy.

Part of the problem is that the star is so close and so bright ? though not as bright as the sun ? that it made it harder to look for planets, said study lead author Xavier Dumusque of the Geneva Observatory.

One astronomer who wasn't part of the research team, wondered in a companion article in Nature if the team had enough evidence to back such an extraordinary claim. But other astronomers said they had no doubt and Udry said the team calculated that there was only a 1-in-1,000 chance that they were wrong about the planet and that something else was causing the signal they saw.

Finding such a planet close by required a significant stroke of good luck, said University of California Santa Cruz astronomer Greg Laughlin.

Dumusque described what it might be like on this odd and still unnamed hot planet. Its closest star is so near that it would always hang huge in the sky. And whichever side of the planet faced the star would be broiling hot, with the other side icy cold.

Because of the mass of the planet, it's likely a rocky surface like Earth, Dumusque said. But the rocks would be "more like lava, like a lava planet."

"If there are any inhabitants there, they're made of asbestos," joked Shostak.

___

Online:

Nature: http://www.nature.com/nature

European Southern Observatory: http://www.eso.org/public/

___

Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/b2f0ca3a594644ee9e50a8ec4ce2d6de/Article_2012-10-16-US-SCI-Nearby-Planet/id-e49feba535234b8ca5838b60f59dc211

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Getting an education is not for everyone, but has proved to be a great option for thousands of people. Some people enjoy being on campus, in a classroom and having direct connection with an instructor. For them, a formal education is best and that works for them. Others would rather fit an education around their convenience and take education at their pace. What?s great is that both are available and both are continuing to grow in size and funding, so there are plenty of options.

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Landmark mosque in Aleppo burned in fighting

In this Saturday, Oct. 13, 2012 photo, a Syrian doctor treats a wounded Free Syrian Army fighter at Dar al-Shifa hospital in Aleppo, Syria. (AP Photo/ Manu Brabo)

In this Saturday, Oct. 13, 2012 photo, a Syrian doctor treats a wounded Free Syrian Army fighter at Dar al-Shifa hospital in Aleppo, Syria. (AP Photo/ Manu Brabo)

An anti-Syrian regime protester carries a large Syrian revolutionary flag during a demonstration in downtown of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 14, 2012. Assir, a strong critic of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and Syrian President Bashar Assad, has organized multiple protests over the past year in a bid to increase support for the Syrian uprising and mount an offensive against Nasrallah for openly supporting Assad?s regime. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

U.N. envoy on Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, left, talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, during their meeting in Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Oct. 14, 2012. An unidentified interpreter sits at center. (AP Photo/ISNA, Amir Pourmand)

BEIRUT (AP) ? Syrian President Bashar Assad ordered on Monday immediate repairs to a historic mosque in the city of Aleppo after fierce fighting between rebels and regime forces set parts of the compound on fire over the weekend.

Government troops had been holed up inside the 13th century Umayyad mosque, a UNESCO World Heritage site, in downtown Aleppo for several months before rebels fighting to topple Assad launched a push to liberate it this week.

Activist Mohammad al-Hassan said the army had been using the mosque as a base because of its strategic location in the center of the old city of Aleppo. Rebels and activists have complained that soldiers and pro-government militiamen wrote offensive graffiti on its walls and drank alcohol inside.

But the regime and the rebels are now trading accusations over who is responsible for the fire at the mosque compound adjacent to Aleppo's medieval citadel. Videos posted by activists online show a large fire and black smoke raging inside the mosque on Saturday, and later, its blackened, pockmarked walls. Debris is strewn on the floors where worshippers once prayed on green and gold carpeting.

"Assad's thugs set the mosque on fire as a punishment for being defeated by the Free Syrian Army," the caption on the video read, referring to the rebels fighting to topple Assad. The government on Monday said it pushed back the rebels from the mosque after the weekend fighting, though activists are giving conflicting reports on who controls it.

In another video, a rebel inside the mosque holds up a torn copy of the Muslim holy book, or Quran, saying: "These are our Qurans, this is our religion, our history."

The mosque is the latest victim of the violence plaguing Syria.

On Sept. 29, a fire caused by the fighting swept through Aleppo's covered market, burning more than 500 shops in the narrow, vaulted passageways.

Some of the country's most significant historical sites have been turned into bases for soldiers and rebels, including historic citadels and Turkish bath houses.

In a possible effort to contain the fallout from the damage at the mosque, Assad issued a presidential decree to form a committee to repair the mosque by the end of 2013.

Aleppo has been the scene of intense fighting, particularly since rebels launched a new offensive more than two weeks ago to try to dislodge regime troops. The fighting has devastated large areas of the city of 3 million, Syria's former business capital.

Also on Monday, Turkey forced a plane from Armenia bound for Syria to land to search the cargo for weapons. Foreign ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal said Turkey granted the plane carrying aid for Aleppo permission to fly over its airspace only on condition it can search its cargo for possible military equipment.

After the search, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc said the plane would be allowed to continue on to Syria. He said the cargo contained humanitarian aid as stated.

Turkey forced a Syrian passenger plane flying from Moscow to Damascus to land in Ankara last week. Turkey said the Syrian Air plane was carrying military gear while Russia said that the equipment was spare parts for radar systems.

Syria and Turkey barred each other's aircraft from flying over their territory over the weekend after a week of exchanging fire across their volatile border.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2012-10-15-Syria/id-22af66278a224df099d252ff610cecf4

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Miss Troy University Pageant is tonight!

Twelve Troy University students will compete for the title of Miss Troy University on Saturday, Oct. 13.

The 42nd annual pageant will be held at 3 p.m. in the Claudia Crosby Theater on the Troy Campus. The theme for this year's pageant is "Ever Ever After." Adult admission is $10 and student admission is $5.

The winner will serve as an ambassador for the University and will compete for the title of Miss Alabama next June. Contestants are judged on a private interview, an on-stage question, swimsuit, talent and evening gown.

Contestants in this year's pageant are:

  • Hillary Ann Anderson, a junior broadcast journalism major from Rehobeth. Her platform is "Character Counts."
  • Hannah McDonald, a junior in elementary education from Prattville. Her platform is the "Ronald McDonald House."
  • Catherine Trisch, a sophomore sport and fitness management major from Navarre, Fla. Her platform is "?Bless the Vets? Pay it Forward."
  • Kimberly Watson, a sophomore theatre major from Gadsden. Her platform is "Respect."
  • Quantessia Young, a sophomore psychology major from Notasulga. Her platform is "Knowledge is Key: Sickle Cell Anemia."
  • Caitlin Crowe, a junior broadcast journalism major from Tuscaloosa. Her platform is "Royal Family Kids Camp."
  • McLeah Morris, a sophomore sport and fitness management major from Ocoee, Fla. Her platform is "Connecting with Disabilities."
  • Morgan Pritchett, a freshman athletics training major from Birmingham. Her platform is "Childhood Obesity."
  • Lauren Molella, a junior pre-med/dance major from Millbrook, N.Y. Her platform is "When Driving: ?Texting and Talking is No lol Matter!?"
  • Amanda Ford, a sophomore broadcast journalism major from Helena. Her platform is "Relay for Life: Funding the American Cancer Society."
  • Elizabeth Guffin, a freshman marine biology major from Auburn. Her platform is "Children?s Miracle Network Hospitals."
  • Madison Wilson, a junior sport and fitness management major from Hoover. Her platform is "Let?s Get Moving: Juvenile Arthritis Advocacy in Action."

Source:? Troy University Office of University Relations

Source: http://opelika.wsfa.com/news/events/187813-miss-troy-university-pageant-tonight

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By Tim Baysinger -- Broadcasting & Cable, 10/15/2012 10:39:31 AM

NBC Sports Group on Monday announced it has agreed to a four-year deal for the exclusive U.S. media rights with Formula One Management, the top international open-wheel racing promoter.

Starting next year, NBC Sports Group will televise all 20 F1 races -- four on NBC and 16 on NBC Sports Network -- as well as qualifying, practice sessions, studio shows and re-airs that total more than 100 hours of programming annually. NBC gets The Grand Prix of Canada in June as well as the final three races of the 2013 season in November, while the remaining 16 races will air on NBC Sports Network. All races will also be live-streamed on NBC Sports Live Extra.

"We are thrilled to add the top international open-wheel racing series to our already-strong motorsports portfolio," said?Jon Miller, president, programming, NBC Sports and NBC Sports Network. "Formula One is a perfect fit for the NBC Sports Group as it provides content across three platforms -- broadcast, cable and digital -- for nine months a year with more than 100 hours of premier programming annually."

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Source: http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/489890-NBC_Sports_Group_Inks_Four_Year_Rights_Deal_With_Formula_One.php?rssid=20068

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